Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of Kura bleak (Alburnus filippii Kessler, 1877) on the Iranian scale

The phenomenon of climate change is the greatest environmental challenge facing in the world today. The phenomenon is expected to affect all ecosystems in the world. Freshwater ecosystems are more vulnerable to these changes, as freshwater is exposed to various human pressures such as hydrology, morphology, connectivity and water quality. Therefore, climate change along with the mentioned issues will exacerbate the impacts on freshwater communities. In this study, with using the Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) tool, the effects of climate change on the distribution of Kura bleak was modelled by nine different algorithms (i.e. GLM, GAM, GBM, RF, CTA, FDA, MARS, ANN, SRE) under two optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) climatic scenarios including two temporal scales (i.e. 2050 and 2080). According to the True Skill Statistic (TSS), the overall performance of the models has been excellent. The results of modelling also show that the distribution of this species in all climatic scenarios will be seriously reduced (100%) on the both temporal scales, and no new potential area for distribution of this fish was also predicted. Therefore, the results of such research provide valuable information to decision makers in order to conserve species better.